A: List the major ideas, concepts or key points- point by point
The author predicts that the biggest threat to global stability are food crises. Food shortages come from 3 main problems: shortage of freshwater, loss of topsoil and rising temperatures. The spread of water shortages poses the most immediate threat. Irrigation uses 70% of all freshwater. Topsoil erosion is the second problem. Crops cannot be grown if the soils are damaged. The last problem of rising temperatures is that every rise of 1 degree Celsius is a 10% drop in crop yield. To these 3 main problems are 4 solutions called Plan B: cut carbon emission by 80% by 2020, stabilization of world population at 8 billion by 2040, eradication of poverty and restoration of forests, soils and aquifers. To cut carbon emissions, we need to raise energy efficiency and invest massively in developing renewable sources of energy. Banning of deforestation can help prevent topsoil erosion. The key to stabilize population is to ensure primary education for all children. Raising water productivity can help sustain our freshwater supply. The challenge is to implement the plan quickly. Without effective and quick implementation, the world can fall into chaos and nations will be sources of terrorists, drugs, weapons and refugees.
C: Write a reaction paragraph to the article stating your own thoughts on the topic, using specific citations from the article to support your views
After reading this article, I think that all of our political instabilities come from environmental problems. An article I read before about water diversion says that water conflicts are the cause of political instability. I think this article supports the idea, because a shortage of food (because of environmental problems) was predicted to cause the fall of civilization and a rise in terrorism, drugs, weapons and refugees. I do think Plan B will solve this problem. I think it can also solve many other environmental problems on Earth. I agree that we should focus on implementing Plan B as soon as possible, because I fear that the longer we take to put the plan in place, the less effective it will be in the long run.
So what?
World food shortages will be the cause of the fall of civilization
Says who?
Lester R. Brown
What if...?
Food shortages weren't a national problem? Would there be enough food to sustain a growing population?
What does this remind me of?
Water conflicts between nations. It can be another cause for the fall of civilization.
- Combined effects of agriculture, population, environmental and economic trends and their interactions generate point to the breakdown of governments and societies.
- Our continuing failure to deal with the environmental declines that are undermining the world food economy (falling water tables, eroding soils and rising temperatures) will cause the collapse of civilization
- In 6 of the past 9 years, world grain production has fallen short of consumption, forcing a steady drawdown in stocks.
- When the 2008 harvest began, world carryover stocks of grain were at 62 days of consumption near the record low.
- In response, world grain prices in spring and summer of last year climbed to the highest level ever
- As demand for food rises faster than supplies, inflation puts stress on governments.
- If food situation continues to deteriorate, entire nations will break down at an increasing rate
- Main threat to national security is failing states.
- States fail when national governments can't provide personal security, food security and social services.
- When governments lose their monopoly on power, law and order disintegrate
- At that point, countries can become so dangerous that food relief workers are no longer safe.
- Failing states are of international concern, because they are a source of terrorists, drugs, weapons and refugees, threatening political stability.
- Somalia #1, piracy
- Iraq #5, terrorist training
- Afghanistan #7, leading heroin supplier
- Surge of world grain prices in 2007 and 2008- and the pose they threat to food security- has a different, more troubling quality than the increases of the past.
- Grain prices rose dramatically several times. As a result, wheat prices more than doubled, pulling rice and corn prices up with them
- Surge in world grain prices are trend-driven. As populations grow, more demand for the grain grows.
- Potential for further grain consumption rise among low-income consumers is huge.
- Shortage of freshwater, loss of topsoil and rising temperatures are making it hard to expand world's grain supply fast enough to keep up with demand.
- Spread of water shortages poses the most immediate threat
- Irrigation is biggest challenge, which consumes 70% of world's freshwater.
- Topsoil is eroding faster than new soil forms on a third of the world's cropland.
- Third and most pervasive environmental threat is rising surface temp
- It can affect crop yields everywhere
- Even a minor temperature change can shrink harvest
- For every rise of one degree Celsius, yields fall 10%
- Soaring food prices and spreading hunger in other countries are beginning to break down the social order.
- Since current world food shortage is trend-driven, the environmental trends that cause it must be reversed.
- The plan is to cut carbon emission by 80% by 2020, stabilization of world population at 8 billion by 2040, eradication of poverty and restoration of forests, soils and aquifers.
- CO2 emission can be cut by raising energy efficiency and investing massively in developing renewable sources of energy.
- We must ban deforestation worldwide
- Stabilizing population and eradicating poverty go hand in hand. Key to accelerating the shift to smaller families is eradicating poverty and vice versa.
- One way is to ensure at least a primary school education for all children.
- Another is to provide rudimentary, village-level health care
- Raising water productivity to arrest the fall in water tables to restore the earth's natural systems and resources
- Raising water productivity by having more efficient irrigation systems
- Must launch worldwide effort to conserve soil
- Terracing ground, planting trees as shelterbelts against windblown soil erosion and practicing minimum tillage are the most important soil-conservation measures.
- Four objectives were seen as positive. Others saw them as humanitarian goals
- Meeting goals may be necessary to prevent collapse of civilization.
- Nature sets the deadlines, it is the timekeeper
- We human beings cannot see the clock
- There is no box when it comes to "think outside the box"
- Plan B is the mind-set we need if civilization is to survive.
The author predicts that the biggest threat to global stability are food crises. Food shortages come from 3 main problems: shortage of freshwater, loss of topsoil and rising temperatures. The spread of water shortages poses the most immediate threat. Irrigation uses 70% of all freshwater. Topsoil erosion is the second problem. Crops cannot be grown if the soils are damaged. The last problem of rising temperatures is that every rise of 1 degree Celsius is a 10% drop in crop yield. To these 3 main problems are 4 solutions called Plan B: cut carbon emission by 80% by 2020, stabilization of world population at 8 billion by 2040, eradication of poverty and restoration of forests, soils and aquifers. To cut carbon emissions, we need to raise energy efficiency and invest massively in developing renewable sources of energy. Banning of deforestation can help prevent topsoil erosion. The key to stabilize population is to ensure primary education for all children. Raising water productivity can help sustain our freshwater supply. The challenge is to implement the plan quickly. Without effective and quick implementation, the world can fall into chaos and nations will be sources of terrorists, drugs, weapons and refugees.
C: Write a reaction paragraph to the article stating your own thoughts on the topic, using specific citations from the article to support your views
After reading this article, I think that all of our political instabilities come from environmental problems. An article I read before about water diversion says that water conflicts are the cause of political instability. I think this article supports the idea, because a shortage of food (because of environmental problems) was predicted to cause the fall of civilization and a rise in terrorism, drugs, weapons and refugees. I do think Plan B will solve this problem. I think it can also solve many other environmental problems on Earth. I agree that we should focus on implementing Plan B as soon as possible, because I fear that the longer we take to put the plan in place, the less effective it will be in the long run.
So what?
World food shortages will be the cause of the fall of civilization
Says who?
Lester R. Brown
What if...?
Food shortages weren't a national problem? Would there be enough food to sustain a growing population?
What does this remind me of?
Water conflicts between nations. It can be another cause for the fall of civilization.